Carbonated soft drinks — the classic cola-led category — have been losing ground in the United States for roughly two decades. Per-capita consumption peaked in the late 1990s and has fallen steadily since, even as overall beverage consumption has held or grown. The displacement is real: bottled water, sparkling water, ready-to- drink tea and coffee, and a fast-growing class of functional beverages are taking shelf, occasions, and dollars.
Figure 1 · US per-capita CSD consumption
gallons / person / year
Figure 1
Long-arc decline of US per-capita carbonated soft drink consumption from the late-1990s peak through the most recent reporting year.
Methodology
Directional index. Annual values composited from publicly reported USDA Economic Research Service food availability data, CDC nutrition surveillance summaries, and beverage-industry trade press. NonCola does not present this as primary research; readers needing audited single-decimal figures should consult the linked agencies.
Why the slide is structural
Three forces have moved in the same direction at once: public-health pressure on added sugars, a younger consumer cohort raised on water and energy drinks, and a retail environment in which premium price-per-ounce alternatives are no longer a niche. The category leaders see it. PepsiCo and Coca-Cola have spent the last decade quietly diversifying away from sugar-led carbonates into water, sports drinks, energy, coffee, and protein. Even quick-service operators are following: McDonald's USA recently launched its first-ever Refreshers and Crafted Sodas line, a direct hedge against cola's slowing growth (McDonald's Corporate).
What's growing in cola's place
The categories taking share share two characteristics: a cleaner ingredient story and a clearer functional pitch. Sparkling waters trade on hydration and zero sugar; functional beverages trade on a benefit (electrolytes, adaptogens, gut health, nootropics) that traditional cola cannot credibly claim.
Figure 2
Directional contrast between cola CSDs (declining) and the better-for-you and functional categories taking their share.
Methodology
Composite directional view. Category sign (positive vs negative) and ordinal magnitude reflect the consensus reported across Beverage Marketing Corporation, IRI/Circana, and trade-press summaries; we do not assert a specific basis-point value for any single year.
Share of stomach is reshuffling
The non-alcoholic beverage occasion is finite. As CSD share has slipped, water and functional drinks have taken the displacement — a structural reshuffle, not a fad.
Figure 3 · US non-alcoholic beverage share (illustrative)
- Carbonated soft drinks38%
- Bottled & sparkling water28%
- Coffee / RTD coffee12%
- RTD tea7%
- Sports / energy / functional9%
- Juice & juice drinks6%
Figure 3
Illustrative split of US non-alcoholic beverage consumption by category.
Methodology
Categories and ordering reflect the structure routinely used by Beverage Marketing Corporation and Circana. Percentages are rounded directional values for editorial reading and should not be treated as audited market-share figures.
Recent timeline
Apr 2026
Texas SNAP restrictions on sugary drinks take effect
New SNAP purchase restrictions on sugary drinks and candy take effect April 1, 2026 in Texas — the first major US state to operationalize a sugary-drink eligibility carve-out.
Texas HHS ↗Apr 2026
Germany announces 2028 sugary-drink levy
Germany — historically resistant to a soda tax — moved to introduce a levy on sugar-sweetened beverages by 2028, joining the UK, France, Mexico, and others.
Reuters ↗2025
WHO calls for 50% health-tax increase on sugary drinks, tobacco, alcohol
The World Health Organization is urging governments to raise prices on sugary drinks, tobacco, and alcohol by at least 50% through health taxes by 2035 to curb chronic disease.
WHO ↗2025
McDonald's debuts Refreshers and Crafted Sodas
The world's largest QSR launches a beverage line explicitly designed to expand beyond traditional cola SKUs.
McDonald's Corporate ↗Ongoing
PBS NewsHour: SNAP changes on Texas residents
Field reporting on how new SNAP restrictions on sugary foods and drinks are landing for Texas families and retailers.
PBS NewsHour ↗
Where to read more
For the regulatory thread — taxes, SNAP eligibility, labeling — see our Policy Tracker. For the underlying health and metabolic literature, see Health & Science. For sister properties covering adjacent angles, see the Network.